On February 23, Qiong Zhang gave an academic report titled "Analysis of RMB Exchange Rate Changes Based on the Three-Zone Markov Conversion Autoregressive Model".Part of the teachers, graduate students and undergraduates attended the lecture presided by Mengxiang Deng.

First of all, Qiong Zhang introduced the development trend of digital currency in the era of digital economy, and pointed out that the digitalization of RMB is the future direction of the development of my country's currency system. Secondly, Qiong Zhang established a three-zone Markov zone system transfer model and used the RMB to USD exchange rate data from June 25, 2019 to April 30, 2021, and took May 29, 2020 as the node for the digitization of RMB. This paper conducts an empirical analysis on the regional transfer characteristics of exchange rates in the two periods before and after RMB digitization. Thirdly, based on the empirical results, Qiong Zhang explained the reasons why the development of RMB digitization had an impact on the RMB exchange rate, and believed that after the digitization of the RMB, the Markov regional system transfer model had undergone a state transfer. Finally, Qiong Zhang verified the effectiveness of the zoning transfer model for analyzing long-time series data, making up for the limitations of simple time series models.

copywriters: GuanyuXu, Ze Zhang

   Verifier: Xiang Li