No.54: Combined forecasting model of Anhui Province's GDP per capita

Published: 2021-04-24      Visits:10      Author:Yijun Zhang


Abstract:In order to more accurately predict the per capita GDP and observe its development trend, we selected the data of Anhui Province’s per capita GDP from 1993 to 2014, established multiple regression, index prediction and quadratic exponential smoothing single prediction models, introduced the IOWA operator, based on the four most The superiority criterion establishes the optimal combination forecasting model that induces the ordered weighted arithmetic average operator. By comparing the sample period errors of the combined forecasting model and the three single forecasting models, it is found that the combined forecasting model based on the IOWA operator has smaller errors, higher accuracy, and more scientific and reasonable forecasts. The IOWA operator combination forecasting model is further used to predict the per capita GDP of Anhui Province from 2015 to 2019, which provides a reference for the government to formulate economic policies and achieve economic goals.

Key Words:IOWA operator;GDP per capita;Anhui Province

 

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